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Turkish-PKK truce irks Baghdad

Apart from anger, Al-Maliki does not seem to have a strategy to deal with the PKK’s deployment in northern Iraq, writes Salah Nasrawi

When Turkey gave refuge to fugitive Iraqi Vice President Tarek Al-Hashimi last year Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki wondered in an interview with a Turkish newspaper how Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would react if Iraq grant imprisoned Turkish Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan asylum in Baghdad. Al-Maliki’s rhetorical question came amid rising tension between the Iraqi Shia leader and Erdogan after Ankara provided shelter to Al-Hashimi and over its engagement with Iraq’s autonomous Kurds and Sunni Arabs who are at loggerheads with the central government over power sharing.
This week thousands of Ocalan’s guerrillas started deploying into Iraq under an agreement which Erdogan’s government signed with the Kurdish rebels without prior consultation with or even notification to the Baghdad government. The Turkish Kurdish rapprochement now poses a stark challenge to Al-Maliki as the Iraqi leader seems to be lacking a strategic thinking and effective diplomacy towards Iraq’s powerful northern neighbour.
Under the deal reached by Ocalan and the Turkish government in March, the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, agreed to end a nearly three-decade armed struggle against Turkey in expectation of granting the Kurds in Turkey political and cultural autonomy. The PKK, which is considered a terror group by Turkey, agreed to withdraw all its fighters from Turkish soil to a safe heaven in the mountains of northern Iraq where the group has maintained bases as springboards for its attacks against Turkey for nearly three decades.
Iraq’s initial reaction to the retreat came in a softly worded statement from its Foreign Ministry. While Iraq supports the peace deal, the ministry said, “it does not accept the entry of armed groups into its territories that can be used to harm Iraq’s security and stability.” Al-Maliki had probably preferred not to speak out for now but the leader of his Shia bloc, the Iraqi National Alliance, Ibrahim Al-Jaafari criticised the transfer of the PKK guerrillas as an infringement on “Iraq’s sovereignty and interference in its internal affairs”. “We refuse to let Iraq to be a scapegoat,” he said in a statement.
Iraqi Sunni leaders who enjoy good relationships with Turkey and look for Ankara’s support in their standoff with the Shia-led government in Baghdad maintained silence on the PKK’s move. The Kurdistan Regional Government which controls northern Iraq also has kept a tight lip despite media reports that an understanding has been reached with its leadership prior to the deal.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu blasted Baghdad’s reaction as dubious. He said Baghdad has no right to object because the PKK troops have already came from inside the Iraqi territories to attack Turkey. “So, why is the Iraq government is now objecting to their return to these territories?” said Davutoglu.
The PKK, meanwhile, tried to mitigate Iraq’s concern by promising that the deal will not come at Iraq’s expense. “The (peace) process is not aimed against anyone, and there is no need for concerns that the struggle will take on another format and pose a threat to others,” PKK spokesman, Ahmet Deniz said in a statement. “A democratic resolution will have a positive effect on the region,” Deniz said. “We understand the concerns, but the process is related to the resolution of the Kurdish issue and won’t cause harm to anyone.” Deniz urged both Baghdad and Erbil to support the agreement.
Relations between Baghdad and Ankara deteriorated after Ankara refused to extradite Al-Hashimi who has been sentenced to death on charges of terrorism including murder. In addition, several bones of contention, including the Syrian conflict and Turkey’s close relations with Iraqi Kurds have strained ties between Ankara and Baghdad.
Tensions have flared recently between Al-Maliki government and Turkey after Baghdad accused Ankara of sowing sectarianism in Iraq over Turkey’s support to Iraqi Sunnis. Last week Iraq’s Acting Defence Minister Saadun Al-Dulaimi accused Ankara of fuelling sectarian tensions in Iraq by supporting Arab Sunnis. Al-Dulaimi accused Turkey of dealing with Iraq as if it is still “a part of the Ottoman Empire”.
The rift deepened in April when Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) started shipping oil to international markets via Turkey in independent export deals. The move has aggravated tensions between the KRG and Baghdad, which considers the sales to be illegal and a challenge to its claim to full control over Iraq’s oil.
Turkey, on the other hand, hopes that closer economic and political relations with Iraqi Kurds may shift regional power in its favour. To complicate things Ankara has struck the deal with the PKK without bothering to inform Al-Maliki’s government, as if it is a regime that is not worthy to deal with. 
Iraq has happily taken a pacifist bent on the PKK presence in northern Iraq and was determined to keep that as long as the PKK was fighting Turkey. Now the ceasefire will have a far reaching impact on Iraq including contributing to strengthening Turkey and deepening Iraq’s ethno-sectarian division. The main threat facing Baghdad is clear: Turkey’s increasing leverage in Iraq will invoke fears of superiority close to domination.
The agreement between the Turkish government and the Kurds is expected to bring Ankara closer to Iraq’s northern region of Kurdistan and allow it to boost ties with Iraq Sunni Arabs and Turkmen. Also, there are fears that the retreating PKK fighters will now join forces with the Kurdish Pehsemrgas in Iraq’s north, adding tension to already souring relations with Baghdad.
In addition to the rebels, thousands of pro-PKK Turkish Kurds have sought safe heaven in northern Iraq since the US invasion in 2003 benefiting from a power vacuum in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. In many parts of Iraqi Kurdistan the PKK operates political and security offices, increasing its influence in Iraqi Kurdistan’s domestic politics.
Iraq’s main concern is that a power struggle between the PKK and Iraq’s Kurds could ensue as the group becomes more powerful, bringing Turkey closer into Iraq’s ethno-sectarian rivalry. There are reports that the PKK is already taking side in the dispute over a controversial presidential election in Kurdistan later this year. Major Kurdish parties such as Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union and the opposition Goran (Change) Party are opposed to President Masoud Barzani’s efforts to get elected for a third term. The controversy could spark a leadership struggle in Kurdistan.
Meanwhile, the Turkish-PKK deal will have another geopolitical ramification mainly on Iraq’s two other neighbours Iran and Syria, where Kurdish rebels affiliated with the PKK are also fighting for autonomy. Iraq will most certainly view a larger Turkish-PKK involvement in its two neighbours as game-changing and a threat that will keep it hostage to unresolved regional issues. 
However, apart from the political rhetoric voiced by leaders of the Baghdad government, Al-Maliki has exhibited an essential lack of strategy in dealing with this issue reflected in a complete absence of initiatives and engagement. On Tuesday the first patch of the PKK guerrillas arrived in northern Iraq, yet Baghdad’s political class shows little sign of knowing or caring how the country’s political clout should be deployed to face up to the Turkish contempt.
The Iraqi Foreign Ministry which should be crucial to informing the country’s strategic vision, is puny. It didn’t even bother to summon Turkish diplomats in Baghdad to protest the violation of Iraq’s sovereignty. A decision by the Baghdad government on Tuesday to file a complaint to the UN Security Council about the Turkish move can hardly be a robust response to Ankara’s challenge.
With about $10.8 billion of Turkish goods and services were exported to Iraq last year. Iraq is Turkey’s second largest trade partner and its single biggest export destination. Yet Baghdad seems unable to encourage its ungrateful neighbour to stop being a thorn in Baghdad’s side.
This policy and diplomacy muddle is in part a consequence of key policy-makers’ short term thinking to try to keep the Baghdad government in power, rather than to serve strategic national interests — a major feature of the Al-Maliki administration.

                                                     صفوة القول (16)
                                     مختارات من اراء وقضايا                 
                         “جمهوريات وراثية” ….ولكن كيف ولماذا؟
نشرت في الحياة في 18 نوفمبر 1999


Corruption or incompetence?

Why do Al-Maliki’s security forces still use a bogus detector which puts Iraqis’ lives at risk, asks Salah Nasrawi

With some 712 Iraqis killed in violence last month, April was Iraq’s bloodiest month in almost five years as ethno-sectarian tensions continue to rise and plague the sharply divided nation. Most of the victims were Shia Muslims who were killed in horrific bomb attacks that rocked cities across Iraq, which are widely believed to be the work of Al-Qaeda terrorist network. Some lethal bomb attacks also targeted Sunni mosques.
The attacks, which came amid a lingering Sunni-Shia government crisis, were reminiscent of those that led to a sectarian civil war following the US invasion in 2003 that toppled the Sunni-controlled regime of Saddam Hussein. The escalation has revealed widespread concerns about Iraq’s security forces’ failings; in particular, their inability to curb the terrible bombing operations which are responsible for the high death tolls.
Amidst the controversy lies a plastic pistol-shaped detector that Iraqi army and police have been using for years to detect explosives that experts have long ruled was not suitable for bomb detection. Iraq’s Interior Ministry began importing the British-made device through a front trading company based in Jordan in 2007 at a time when the country was gripped in its worst sectarian strife when terrorists were carrying out nearly daily sporadic bombings.
From the start, many Iraqis insisted the device was useless in detecting bombs, and joked at checkpoints as false alarms were raised over other things found in their cars such as perfumes, air fresheners or gold fillings in the passengers’ teeth. Last week the small hand-held device came into the limelight again when a London court ruled that the machine is bogus and sentenced its manufacturer Jim McCormick to 10 years in jail for selling the faked device to Iraq and other countries.
The court said the device is modelled on a £15 toy golf ball detector sold in the US as Golfinder and is utterly useless at sniffing out explosives. It said McCormick netted an estimated £60 million selling the cheap US novelty dowsing rods as sophisticated bomb and drug sniffing devices for up to $30,000 a piece. “The device was useless, the profit outrageous and your culpability as a fraudster has to be placed in the highest category,” a presiding judge told McCormick after issuing the sentence.
Yet, Iraqi soldiers are still walking past a line of cars checkpoints carrying the alleged bomb detector looking for its antenna to swing left, indicating a threat. Back in 2007, Iraq’s Interior Ministry spent over about $119.5 million on some 1,500 devices known as Advanced Detection Equipment, or ADE 651. Major General Jihad Al-Jabiri, head of the Interior Ministry’s General Directorate for Combating Explosive at the time, praised the device as very effective.
The device which McCormick claimed would detect all known drug and explosive based substances was instantly ruled as fake by experts. Research done by American forces in Iraq and Iraqi experts at the Ministry of Science and Technology also found that the device was not effective and did not work. Other studies concluded that the instruments had no working electronics in them that could detect bombs or anything else and do not provide more than a random chance of detecting a bomb.
The experts said daily shootings and bombings in Iraq have also been a testament to the failure of the device which is used at main checkpoints in Baghdad and many other cities. Al-Maliki’s government dismissed reports that the device was useless and its spokesman at the time Ali Al-Dabbagh told reporters that a government inquiry had found that “more than 50 per cent of the devices are good, and the rest we will change.”
Nevertheless, the bogus bomb detectors are still in use at checkpoints in place of physical or other inspections of cars. Policemen and army soldiers still stand under sheds erected over the roads with the device with its telescopic antenna on a swivel, pointing parallel to traffic, checking cars as they pass. If the device’s antenna points to a vehicle, it is usually directed to a second team in the checkpoint where thorough inspection is carried out by policemen or soldiers who also ask for identification.
Because it was not effective, McCormick’s bogus bomb detectors are believed to have contributed to the shedding of Iraqi blood. There is no way to know exactly how many innocent lives have been lost as a result. But Iraqi Body Count estimates that some 122,000 Iraqis have been killed in Iraq’s violence since 2003, many of them in bombing attacks or blasts.
Many Iraqis would love to see Iraqi officials responsible for the fraud behind bars for their role in the waste of Iraqi blood. Al-Jabiri, who was involved in the purchase of the devices, was referred to the judiciary and in 2011 he was jailed for four years, but no proper investigation was conducted, including the role of a Jordan-based firm which was an intermediary in the deal. Many Iraqis believe Al-Jabiri got a relatively light sentence in exchange for concealing names of alleged accomplices.
Corruption in post-US invasion Iraq has gone on for so long that it has lost some of its power to shock. Most of Iraq’s political elite are believed to be involved in one type or another of corruption, manipulating the economic system in order to extract rents they can use to secure control of the government. Some are believed to have set up bogus companies abroad to run dodgy business deal with the government through cronies.
Iraq’s Interior Ministry, which is headed by Al-Maliki himself, is among the most corrupt government departments in Iraq, raising concern that a greater security threat may come from within the system from the top commanders down to soldiers who man checkpoints. Internal reports on corruption by the ministry’s inspector general have specifically cited the bribery of checkpoint guards.
Senior police officers are reportedly buying their authority over particular neighbourhoods by bribing politicians while junior officers pay their seniors monthly stipends and everyone gets a return on their investment by extorting money from families of detainees who are arrested on false charges. The government inaction to investigate and bring criminal charges against Iraqi officials and businessmen who are believed to be responsible for the death of so many people and the reluctance to remove the device from checkpoints are quite puzzling.
Many Iraqis wonder why only one official was convicted and sent to jail for his part in the detectors’ scandal. They believe that the case involves many top officials at the Interior Ministry and the government whose signatures are required to make the deal. Other Iraqis question the security strategy of army and police commanders who have kept the devices operational at checkpoints despite the fact that they are ineffective.
Suicide bombers are still able to get explosives through checkpoints where these devices are used to kill people and destroy buildings. Demands are increasing for investigation and retribution.
On Saturday, Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr told Al-Maliki, who is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces, to apologise for the bogus detectors’ deal and “to exonerate” himself before the country’s judiciary and parliament. Al-Sadr also urged the government to order security forces to stop using the device at checkpoints, and demanded compensations to the victims and their families.

                     إعلام أقوي أفضل للجميع
صلاح النصراوى
في ذكري اليوم العالمي لحرية الصحافة التي صادفت الجمعة الماضية توقفت صحيفة العالم العراقية عن الصدور بعد ان اتهم محرورها الحكومة بالسعي لــ كسر هيبة الجريدة وتوجيهها ضربات جديدة للإعلام المستقل.قبل ذلك بايام اغلقت صحيفة مصر المستقلة الصادرة باللغة الانجليزية عن مؤسسة المصري اليوم لاسباب قال محرروها ايضا انها تتعلق بعدم ارتياح الادارة من السياسة التحريرية للصحيفة التي لاقت نسختاها الالكترونية والورقية قبولا واسعا منذ صدورها قبل اربع سنوات.

قد تختلف ظروف اغلاق الصحيفتين إلا ان ما تكشف عنه الملابسات المحيطة بتوقفهما وكذلك الوقائع التي افصحت عنها تقارير دولية بمناسبة اليوم العالمي لحرية الصحافة في بلدان عربية عديدة هو ان الصحفيين في العالم العربي لايزالون يتعرضون لمحاولات التدجين والتركيع, بل الترويع التي تستهدف استقلالهم وحريتهم, حتي بعد ربيع الثورات الذي عقدوا عليه آمالهم في نهاية السياسات القمعية التي مارستها الانظمة البائدة ضد الصحافة.

انه لشيء محزن ان الثورات العربية لم تغير كثيرا من حال الصحافة والاعلام في العالم العربي, بل ان الوقائع تشير الي تراجعات وانتكاسات في بعض الاحيان, مما ادي الي تعطيل مهمة الصحافة في ان تصبح اداة من ادوات التغير الثوري, ولعله اكثر من هذا حين يستمر الاعلاميون والكتاب بالتعرض لعقوبات او ضغوط لانهم انحازوا لقضايا الثورة والحرية ورأوا ان ولاء الصحافة والفكر يجب ان يظل للناس وليس للسلطة او للجماعات السياسية المتناحرة او مصالح رجال الاعمال.

كان متوقعا ان تجري في بلدان الثورات اعادة هيكلة للمنظومات الصحفية والاعلامية وتطوير البني التشريعية سواء بما يتلاءم مع التطورات الهائلة في الثورة التكنولوجية الاعلامية العالمية, او بما يمنح العاملين فيها الحرية والاستقلالية التي تمكنهم من اداء عملهم في السياق الجديد الذي يتطلب دورا اكبر للصحافة الحرة, ليس كأداة للاتصال الجماهيري فقط, بل كإطار مرجعي مشترك وأداة للتغيير الديمقراطي الجذري في مجتمعات مابعد الثورات.

لم يتحقق ذلك بعد, بل ان هناك شواهد كثيرة ان قوي سياسية بعينها, بعضها من الحكام الجدد, وبعضها الآخر من فلول وازلام الانظمة البالية, لا ترغب بان تجري اعادة الهيكلة بطريقة تضعف من قبضتها علي اجهزة الاعلام لاستخدامها في معاركها المستمرة.في تونس مثلا اعلن هذا الاسبوع عن تشكيل الهيئة العليا المستقلة للإعلام السمعي والبصري لكنها لم تحظ بالقبول الواسع من اصحاب المهنة بسبب الشكوك التي تحوم بشأن تركيبتها وقدرتها علي القيام بإصلاح ذاتي وهيكلة داخلية متطورة لاجهزة الاعلام في اثناء المرحلة الانتقالية.

وفي مصر تواجه الصيغ المطروحة لتشكيل المجلس الوطني للإعلام صعاب اعادة هيكلة كامل المنظومة الاعلامية الموروثة من النظام القديم, كما تواجه تحديات تضارب المصالح بين القوي الفاعلة واعتراضات سببها الخشية من افتقاد التوازن بين ضرورات حماية المجتمع ومواجهة الاحتكار والتزام وسائل الإعلام بأصول المهنة وأخلاقياتها, وبين الحريات والحقوق التي ينبغي توفيرها للممارسة الاعلامية الحرة.

واذا كانت التجربتان التونسية والمصرية, وما ينتظره بلدان اخري, موضع تشكيك وريبة فان التجربة العراقية وبعد عشر سنوات من اعادة هيكلة المنظومة الاعلامية الموروثة عن نظام صدام حسين تشي فعليا بالكثير من المثالب التي تدل علي فشل ذريع في اطلاق اعلام حر ومستقل ففي حين تخضع هيئة الاعلام والاتصالات العراقية وذراعها شبكة الاعلام العراقي لهيمنة سلطة الاحزاب الحاكمة وتدخلاتها فان اجهزة الاعلام الخاصة والحزبية تعاني من مشكلات جدية من عدم المهنية والفوضي وهيمنة الاحزاب علي المال السياسي, والاسوء استشراء الطائفية بابشع تجلياتها.

ان التجربة العراقية المبنية اساسا علي نموذج هيئة الاذاعة البريطانية بي بي سي التي لا تزال تروج نموذجها بعض المنظمات الدولية التي تساهم بجهود اعادة هيكلة الاعلام في دول الثورات هي ذاتها التي تحولت الحريات الصحفية في ظلها الي الأسوء منذ سقوط نظام صدام عام2003 حسب التقرير الاخير لــ مرصد الحريات الصحافية العراقية مما يستدعي دراسة اسباب فشلها وعجزها عن تحقيق اهدافها والبحث عن بدائل مناسبة.
يكمن مستقبل الحريات الصحفية في صلب عملية التطور الديمقراطي في عالمنا العربي وسيكون الصحفيون في مقدمة صناع التغير, الامر الذي ينبغي ان يوفر لهم الفرصة ان يقوموا بواجبهم في توفير المعلومات وزيادة الوعي الوطني لدي الناس بكل شجاعة واستقلالية ويسر وشفافية.صحيح ان التشريعات والتنظيمات ستبقي ضرورية في معركة الحرية هذه إلا ان هناك جانبا حيويا يبنبغي التركيز عليه ايضا وهو كيفية مساعدة الصحفيين والاعلاميين علي تطوير ادائهم بما يتلاءم مع المتطلبات التي تجعل من ممارسة المهنة ومن اماكن عمهلم مواقع اكثر حيوية وانتاجية وابداعا.
هناك حاجة ملحة لان تكون الصحافة في عالمنا العربي اكثر قوة, وهو ما يتأتي حين تكون اكثر حرفية, الامر الذي يعني ان هناك ضرورة قصوي بالاستثمار في الصحفي نفسه من خلال تدريبه وصقل مواهبه وتطوير مهاراته في مهنة اصبحت تجمع في متطلبات ادائها اضافة الي الدراسة المتخصصة الاستعداد الذاتي والطموح والمعرفة الموسوعية والي مختلف انواع العلوم, كما تستخدم انواع التقنيات الحديثة التي اصبح من الصعب رؤية العالم دونها.
من يتابع الهجمة الشرسة التي تتعرض لها الصحافة والاعلام من قبل القوي المضادة تحت ذرائع الفوضي والعشوائية وعدم المهنية سيري انها كلمة حق حتي لو اريد بها باطل.فجزء كبير من الممارسات الاعلامية يخلو من اي معايير مهنية واضحة, بل احيانا تنعدم فيه المصداقية والنزاهة ويقترب من حدود الشائعات والكذب والتدليس وهي كلها مثالب تضعف من قوة الاعلام ودوره النبيل وتتيح لاعداء الحرية توجيه ضرباتهم له.
من العراق حتي المغرب سيكون هناك دور محوري للاعلام خلال السنوات والعقود القادمة في عمليات التحول في العالم العربي اكثر من اي وقت مضي نظرا لضعف ادوات التغيير الاخري كالاحزاب ومنظمات المجتمع المدني وقوي الشارع, مما يدل علي ان هذا القطاع الحيوي سيكون ميدان معارك كبري للسيطرة علي العقول والافئدة, من جهة, وفي معارك الحرية, من جهة ثانية.

احد الدروس المستنبطة من تجارب الثورة المصرية هو ان سلميتها جاءت, الي حد كبير, من الدور الذي لعبه الاعلام( برغم عيوبه) في امتصاص موجات الغضب مما يعني ان اعلاما اقوي واكثر تطورا سيكون افضل قدرة علي خلق وعي جماهيري لانجاز متطلبات التحول الديمقراطي سلميا.

                                                  

Iraq’s gathering storm

As Sunni protests turn increasingly bloody, Iraq’s sectarian ozone hole is getting ever larger, writes Salah Nasrawi

The call for jihad by a cleric and leader of the Sunni protests in the Iraqi town of Fallujah during Friday prayer this week could signal further frustration and anger over what Sunnis see as the Shia-led government’s indifference to their demands to end what they see as their mistreatment and exclusion.
Yet, if the gravity of Iraq’s sectarian conflict can be gauged by the guns employed during recent protests, it is worth noting that Sheikh Ali Moheibis Al-Basri’s call for holy war to topple Iraq’s Shia-led government has also succeeded in making many Sunnis start oiling their gun barrels.
Wearing combat uniform and carried high on supporters’ shoulders, Al-Basri said Sunnis should resort to holy war to oust Iraq’s Shia Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki and expel government troops from the country’s Sunni-dominated provinces.
“We are not a minority, and we will not let him exclude or marginalise us,” shouted the cleric amid cries of “Down with Al-Maliki” from the furious crowd. 
In the nearby provincial capital of Al-Ramadi, Sunni religious and tribal leaders decided to form an army made up of tribes and armed groups to defend their areas, which have been holding anti-government protests since December.
Sheikh Said Al-Lafi, a spokesman for the protesters in Al-Ramadi, said the “Army of Pride and Dignity” would take over security from government forces in the province and urged local police to join the new force.
Top Sunni cleric Sheikh Abdel-Malik Al-Saadi, who is widely considered to be a spiritual leader of the protesters, welcomed the creation of the army of mujahideen, or holy warriors, “in defence of souls, honour and the country.”
However, the rhetoric raised fears of a return to the widespread sectarian bloodshed that pushed Iraq into civil war following the US-led 2003 invasion that toppled the Sunni-dominated regime of former president Saddam Hussein.
On Saturday, gunmen killed five army intelligence soldiers near the main protest camp in Al-Ramadi who authorities said were returning from holiday to their units. The Iraqi media said that at least two bodies belonging to Shia soldiers were later founded mutilated.
Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, the leader of the Shia Iraqi National Alliance, described the killing as “heinous”. The attack also drew a quick response from military leaders who threatened to “take whatever [measures] are necessary to arrest the perpetrators.”
Across the Sunni-dominated provinces, army, police posts and members of a government-backed Sunni Sahwa militia came under mortar shells this week. Shias have nearly overall control of most of the army and police forces, who are often targeted by Sunni militants.
Sunni anger also exploded over the deaths of dozens in the city of Al-Haweeja in clashes with the Iraqi army and police. The incident triggered Sunni militants to seize the nearby town of Suleiman Bec and kill its small police force before a deal was struck with local tribes to let them go.
Five car bombs exploded on Monday in predominantly Shia cities and districts in central and southern Iraq, killing more than 30 civilians and wounding dozens of others, in a further sign of deepening hostility. 
The string of blasts has left nearly 300 people killed and hundreds of others wounded since the attack in Al-Haweeja on 23 April.  
Since December, tens of thousands of Sunnis have taken to the streets across Iraq to protest against the perceived marginalisation of their sect under Iraq’s Shia-led government.
The demands quickly grew to include revoking the US-orchestrated political process that they believe has empowered the majority Shias at their expense and pushing for a new constitution that they say should end their perceived neglect and marginalisation.
Though the government has made some concessions, its response to demands for drastic changes in Iraq’s political landscape that would weaken the Shias hold on power have remained negative.
The escalation in violence has prompted fears among Iraqi leaders and international powers that tensions between the Sunnis and Shias could escalate into a full-blown sectarian war with regional ramifications.
Following the escalation, UN envoy to Iraq Martin Kobler warned that Iraq was “at a crossroads” and that the country could head towards the unknown if decisive measures were not taken immediately to stop the escalating violence.
Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Al-Arabi said that any delay in resolving the Iraqi crisis would “exacerbate the situation and threaten to plunge Iraq and the region into disaster.”
The warnings are well warranted. Observers have noted an increase in the numbers of attacks targeting Sunnis over the last few weeks in a worrying sign of tit-for-tat retaliation attacks.
Last week, a bomb exploded in a popular coffee shop in the predominately Sunni neighbourhood of Al-Amiriya in Baghdad, killing at least 27 people and wounding 51 others.
Bombs blew up at Sunni mosques across Iraq amid Friday prayers, and local news outlets have reported numerous assassinations of Sunni activists by silencer-mounted guns in April.
No claims of responsibility were made, but the leader of the little-known Iraqi Hizbullah, Wathiq Al-Batat, announced that the movement had formed a new militia to defend Shias and help the government combat terrorism.
While Iraq remains mired in violence and political stagnation, the potential of the Sunni uprising to sweep through the centre and north of the country seems to have brought Iraq’s myriad factions before the hard choice of either staying in a unified nation or breaking away into three separate entities.
On Monday, the UK’s Independent newspaper reported that Iraqi politicians were becoming gloomier about prospects for keeping the country together.
It quoted Mowaffak Al-Rubaie, the former Iraqi national security adviser, as saying that for the first time he was hearing leaders in Baghdad talk seriously of partitioning the country.
In recent weeks, there has been public debate among Iraqi politicians to the effect that Iraq’s problems could be solved by the establishment of three entities in a federal Iraq based on a plan proposed by US Vice President Joe Biden.
In 2007, and while serving in the US Congress, Biden introduced a non-binding bill for “decentralising” Iraq into three entities, one Shia, one Sunni and one Kurdish. The bill was approved by the Senate by 75 votes to 23.
Iraqi news outlets have reported that the new local governments which will be formed following this month’s provincial elections could decide to form such autonomous entities, in a sign that the season of hard decisions has already arrived. 
Many politicians in Basra have been campaigning to convince their constituencies that a federal region is the best prescription for developing the oil-rich and Shia-dominated province away from the control of the central government in Baghdad.  
Also, many Sunni leaders, including the speaker of Iraq’s parliament Osama Al-Nujaifi, whose political bloc Mowahdoun has made strides in the provincial elections, have spoken in favour of federalism.
Sunnis have yet to decide on whether federalism should be an option. With no unified protest movement in existence, Sunnis seem to be divided over whether to keep their protests peaceful or risk pushing them into an open revolt against the Shias, a move which could close the door on any rapprochement and pave the way for division.
There have been signs that the Kurds, who have been running their own autonomous federal region since the US-led invasion, are already taking advantage of the Shia-Sunni standoff.
Kurdish security forces deployed this week beyond the formal boundary of their autonomous region, a move which will bolster their control over oil-rich areas larger than their own region.
Local media also suggested that the head of the Kurdish regional government, Nechirvan Barzani, who visited Baghdad on Monday, had succeeded in securing major concessions from the ruling Shia government on contentious issues such as disputed territories, oil exploration in the region, and the status of the Kurdish forces, known as Peshmergas.
The Shia coalition government has been rejecting Kurdish attempts to pass a new law on oil and gas that would allow them to sign exploration and sale contracts with foreign companies independently, hold a referendum on the future of the disputed areas, and pay the salaries of the Peshmergas forces.
If true, the move would mean that new fault lines are opening up in Iraq’s ethno-sectarian divide, as Sunnis will feel that the Kurdish-Shia reconciliation will affect their territories, reducing their chances of forcing the Shias to make concessions to their demands.
Whatever approach the rival factions take, the question remains of whether they will be able to spare Iraq from the spectre of the civil war and sectarian strife that seems to be looming over the country.